Putin’s announcement of a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine which was followed by a full out invasion featuring an attempted blitzkrieg of key strategic locations including the country’s capital, Kyiv seemed like an astonishing decision. The continuation of the conflict despite severe casualties and severe economic sanctions, along with Putin’s threats that are direct allusions to using nuclear weapons has led many to think that Putin after 22 years in power and the last two years of isolation has gone mad. As incredible as it may seem, the decision to invade Ukraine, from Putin’s viewpoint was perfectly rational and is part of a master plan which was probably already formed when he returned to the post of president in 2012 and quite possibly earlier – perhaps in 2007. I remember soldiers in 2006 telling me there would be a war. Warnings that I ignored because soldiers need to justify their existence just like everyone else. In relation to the Ukraine the events which triggered this current war date back to 2013-14 when President Viktor Yanokovich, a pro-Russian president who had promised to join the EU, under heavy pressure from Russia, reneged on the promise. This triggered a series of protests that led to the downfall of Yanokovich and the establishment of a pro-Western government.
Putin’s response was immediately to seize Crimea, the home of the Russian Black Sea fleet and consequently a location of strategic importance, and seize, through a well orchestrated ‘special operation’ territories in the east of Ukraine – Donetsk and Luhansk. The ensuing conflict in the East has led to about 14,000 casualties prior to the latest invasion. The rational explanation was that this was an attempt to create a frozen conflict – a low intensity, ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia would prevent Ukraine from entering Nato.
At the same time as Putin was manoeuvring in Ukraine he stepped up the information war. Russian backed media organisations that had previously been quite objective became patriotic such publications as RIANovosti, InoSmi (ForeignMedia, which was articles published around the globe translated into Russian) and Russia Beyond the Headlines all became propaganda channels. Russia Today which was established in about 2006 as the Russian equivalent of the BBC had become the state’s main source for disinformation and has been behind numerous pieces of disinformation on heated topics such as COVID19, vaccinations, 5G etc. The Russian Troll Factory which is located in St. Petersburg became even more active
In addition to this Putin stepped up support for right wing organisations throughout Europe and around the globe. This support has been openly visible through the provision of loans to such organisations as Le Pen’s National Rally (formerly National Front). Russian organs such as Russia Today actively supported Brexit with Nigel Farage having a slot as a political commentator on Russia Today and it is clear now that Trump was supported extensively by Putin. The purpose of Brexit and Trump was to sow disunity amongst the EU and Nato. This is something the Trump did extremely well, one of his main tasks appeared to be to weaken Nato. There is also a paramilitary training camp located outside St Petersburg for training right wing fighters and terrorists.
While Putin was doing his best to break up allies in Europe and across the Atlantic he continued an expensive series of military reforms at home so that he could justly boast the second best military in the world. These military reforms seem to have been going on forever but were stepped up after 2014 with Russia announcing on a regular basis the development of ever new weapons which had capabilities far in superior to anything the West had. Such weapons included the Armata tank, new fighter planes, and new hypersonic missiles (kalibr and kinzhal) which have been used against targets in Ukraine.
Along with new technology Russia intervened in Syria. This again could be seen as a purely strategic move, as Syria was Russia’s last remaining ally in the Middle East, however, in light of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian military operations in Syria take on a different meaning and are more akin to Nazi Germany’s involvement in the Spanish Civil War – essentially a testing ground for developing and practising military tactics and operations. The effects appeared to have been highly regarded with a defence analyst at Janes stating that the Russian army was now operating to a high standard. It was such analyses which led many in the intelligence community to expect Kyiv to fall within 72 or 96 hours.
In hindsight, it would appear that Putin had a definite plan to invade Ukraine – such a confrontation was impossible if the USA, Nato and Britain were united and so he undertook a series of complex machinations to break up the alliance, weaken the military preparedness of Nato and the number of troops defending European countries. Having largely achieved these aims, Putin thought the time was right to launch his invasion and re-establish control over the former territories of the Russian Empire.
Unfortunately for Putin, he was misinformed about a number of things. Firstly, he appears to have been under the belief that Ukraine really did need to be liberated and that Russian forces would be met as liberators. This was what many Russian soldiers believed when they were entering Ukraine and were shocked to discover that the Ukrainians were shooting at them. Secondly, Putin expected, as did Western intelligence, to take Kyiv within three days. As a result of both these misunderstandings Russian logistics were poorly coordinated and many troops had insufficient food and supplies. There are reports of captured tanks with parade uniforms. Other soldiers were told they were just going on military exercises – it has been assumed that they were lied to but perhaps their officers really did believe that they would be moving into positions in Ukraine without actually fighting, so in effect they would just be undertaking military manoeuvres.
Putin consequently expected to achieve a coup de grace in taking over Ukraine with an operation very similar to the one that was conducted in 2014 when he seized Crimea. In Putin’s mind, he would launch an operation that would seize Kyiv within three days. The Ukrainian people would flock to the streets to welcome their all-conquering Russian heroes and Ukraine would be unified with Russia just as Crimea had been (or just as Austria had been with Germany with Anschluss in 1938). A plebiscite would be hastily arranged and the Ukraine would rejoin the fold of the heroic Russian people. Western countries might object but as had happened in 2014 they would be faced with a coup de grace. Ukraine was already in Russian control, the people clearly wanted to be united with Russia, the West might add some sanctions but dependence on Russian gas and oil would make those sanctions little more than window dressing – why let politics get in the way of business after all.
However, the analysis was all wrong. The Russian army had not been reformed. The Russian army had invaded with a force approximately the same size as the Ukrainian army and the cities would require huge numbers of men to capture if they met any form of resistance. Kyiv has not been captured. So instead of presenting a disunited West with a coup de grace, Putin has presented them with a colossal strategic blunder – an invasion in Europe of scale unseen since the Second World War which has demonstrated both the ineptness of the Russian military and the courage and determination of the Ukrainian people. This has led to unprecedented sanctions that should cripple the Russian economy and should destroy any myth of a great Russian nation or an all-conquering Russian army.
With the reversals on the battlefield there is a natural fear that Putin may use nuclear weapons. Indeed, it is this fear which is preventing other countries from providing military assistance to Ukraine – the fear is amplified if we consider that Putin has gone mad and is no longer making rational decisions. However, as the build up to this conflict indicates it is clear Putin has not gone mad – he had misunderstood the competence of his own army and he misunderstood the mood within Ukraine. These are colossal failures, however, they indicate that while being out of touch, Putin is working to a plan and a strategy and that means he is unlikely to resort to measures that would destroy ‘his’ country.